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HDFC Bank Q3 Earnings Expectations and Key Insights
With HDFC Bank all set to announce its fiscal third quarter earnings on Wednesday (January 22), brokerage firms and analysts said that the banking major is expected to post 8.1-8.4 per cent growth in its Q3 Net Interest Income (NII). The NII range is seen between Rs 30,778 crore and Rs 30,887 crore. Experts said that HDFC Bank is expected to report a subdued quarter with a single-digit profit growth during Q3FY25, weighed down by modest loan growth and stagnant margins. According to a Moneycontrol poll, HDFC Bank is expected to record Q3 net profit at Rs 16,650 crore and NII is estimated at Rs 30,690 crore during the quarter in review. Further, another poll by Bloomberg stated that HDFC Bank is set to report profit at Rs 16,596 crore. HDFC Bank, per its Q3 business update, recorded a 3 per cent YoY loan growth as it concentrated on improving its loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR). Deposits, meanwhile, grew by 16 per cent YoY to Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Elara Capital said HDFC Bank is expected to post softer momentum in loan growth. The bank, as per some media articles, seems to have sold down its portfolio, which will impact loan growth. The key to watch will be deposit traction and the composition in the form of retail and others. The Banks Net Interest Margin (NIM) is projected to remain flat at 3.6 per cent as the management focused on reducing its credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio below 100 per cent following its merger with HDFC Ltd. Elara Capital said, Expect broadly steady NIMs, but the interplay within LDR, LCR and NIMs will be the key monitorable. YES Securities too maintained that HDFC Banks NIM will be stable sequentially. YES Securities, while maintaining that HDFC Bank will see a flattish trend in provisions, said, Sequential loan growth will be in the 2.5 per cent ballpark due to the idiosyncratic growth trajectory. NII growth will be in-line with average loan growth as the rise in yield on advances to be in tandem with rise in cost of deposits. Consequently, NIM will be stable sequentially. Sequential fee income growth will broadly match loan growth. Opex growth would slightly lag business growth. Slippages would be broadly stable on a sequential basis. Provisions will be stable on a sequential basis. Per the brokerage firm, HDFC Bank is expected to post NII at Rs 30,866.70 crore, up 8.4 per cent YoY and profit for the period is estimated at Rs 17,232.30 crore, up 5.3 per cent. Axis Securities said that HDFC Banks deposit growth will be better than credit growth as LDR improved marginally. Margins for the quarter are likely to remain stable QoQ with a slight positive bias, it said. Slippages are expected to remain under control with stable asset quality. Per the brokerage firm, HDFC Bank is projected to record NII at Rs 30,778 crore, up 8.1 per cent and net profit is estimated at Rs 16,737 crore, up 2.2 per cent YoY. Per Elara Capital, HDFC Bank is expected to post NII at Rs 30,887.60 crore, up 8.5 per cent and profit is estimated at Rs 16,745.80 crore, up 2.3 per cent. The loan book for the quarter is expected to be at Rs 2545.00 thousand crore, up 4 per cent YoY and deposits will stand at Rs 2560.10 thousand crore.21 Jan, 2025 04:47 PMInvestors Should Watch HDFC Bank Results on January 22
HDFC Banks provisional numbers for Q3 FY25 revealed muted loan growth, much below the industry level, as the bank focused on deposit accretion and improving its loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR). Given the significant shortfall in deposits following the merger of HDFC Ltd with the bank in July 2023, the lender has been strategically going slower on advances to build the liability side of the book. The largest private sector lender, HDFC Bank, saw loans grow the slowest among peer banks, at only 3% on year and 0.9% on quarter, also due to aggressive portfolio sales during the period. The lenders deposits were 15.8% higher on year and 2.5% on quarter. Deposit growth was led by a sharp growth in term deposits (+23% y-o-y), as the Casa (current account and savings account) ratio declined to 34% (-130 bps q-o-q). Loan growth declined further from 7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q2 FY25 due to a system-wide slowdown in loan growth and the banks continued securitization of its loan portfolio, Bernstein Research said in a note. HDFC Bank remains a favourite of analysts, especially among large banks, as some peers struggle with asset quality issues—in the microfinance and small-ticket unsecured portfolios. Most brokerages have a positive outlook on the bank, with price targets in the range of ₹2,300 and ₹2,550. Management commentary on credit-deposit Despite the significant pick-up in deposits during the quarter, HDFC Bank has some way to go before it achieves the optimal LDR. This means that the banks strategy on future deposit accretion and the management commentary on expected deposit growth will continue to be keenly watched. As such, analysts said, the resultant impact on the trajectory of margins and overall stability of the banks asset-liability management will remain in focus. Macquarie Research said it has factored in deposit growth of 15% y-o-y for FY25, which implies 6.8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth and a ₹1.7 trillion deposit accretion in Q4. Given the Q4 seasonality and the deposit mobilisation witnessed last year in Q4FY24 (7.5% q-o-q growth, ₹1.7 trillion deposits mobilized), this target looks achievable to us and appears to be a good outcome given the system deposit growth expectation of 11% levels, the research firm said. Loan securitisation HDFC Bank securitised loans worth ₹21,600 crore during the quarter. Retail loans grew 10% on year, commercial and rural banking loans by 12%, whereas corporate loans declined by 10%. The bank is expected to continue offloading some small-ticket loans and low-yielding corporate loans as it consolidates its loan portfolio in an attempt to focus on the liability side. Macquarie expects some moderation in retail and CRB (commercial and rural banking) growth, whereas wholesale loans are expected to increase. Loan growth at 6% y-o-y and 2% q-o-q was in line with expectations of the banks consolidation strategy. Also read | Why HDFC Bank turned down MUFJs overtures on HDB Financial There was some moderation in retail (up 1.9% q-o-q) and CRB growth (up 1.5% q-o-q). We think there could have been some sell-down of retail loans this quarter, the research firm said. Stable net interest margin (NIM) HDFC Banks credit-deposit ratio is expected to improve in the reporting quarter as deposit growth far outpaced credit growth. As a result, margins are also expected to remain stable with a slight positive bias as operating expenditure is also seen steady, Axis Securities said in a note. Margins are expected to improve gradually over the medium term as the LDR improves further and incremental deposits replace the high-cost borrowings of the former HDFC, improvement in loan mix and positive spread on securitised loans, analysts said, pegging margins for the quarter at around 3.6%—flat on year and better by about 5 basis points (bps) sequentially. Jefferies expects margins to rise from 3.6% in FY24 to 3.8% in FY27, aiding the banks earnings growth in the medium term. Return on assets (RoA) trajectory A combination of slower loan growth and a healthy deposit growth hence resulted in a further normalization of the LDR (-150 bps q-o-q), Bernstein Research said. While the numbers seem positive, slower loan growth will mean that the bank will require a q-o-q improvement in RoA to maintain its improving EPS (earnings per share) growth trajectory. And read | Bears flock to HDFC Bank counter as loan, deposit growth slows BNP Paribas said that its estimates of key fundamentals, including RoA and return on equity (RoE), build in a considerable margin of safety by assuming an accelerated timeline for Priority Sector Lending (PSL) asset build-up, muted Casa momentum and no expected savings in operating cost from merger synergies. Despite these conservative assumptions, we see ROA touching 1.9% in FY26 and ROE nearing the pre-merger steady state of 17% by FY27. A valuation of 2x 1-year forward core BVPS (deep discount to long-term average) does scarce justice to an FY26E core ROE of 14.9% that compares favourably with its pre-merger past five-year average, the note said. Asset quality Unlike some of its peers which are facing asset quality issues, especially in the microfinance and small-ticket unsecured portfolios, HDFC Banks asset quality is expected to remain stable on the back of controlled slippages.21 Jan, 2025 04:01 PMHDFC Bank Q3 Results Preview: NII and Profit Estimates
Indias largest private lender HDFC Bank is expected to report a 7-8.4% year-on-year growth in its December quarter net interest income (NII) according to estimates by five brokerages. The NII range is seen between Rs 30,497 crore and Rs 30,867 crore. HDFC Banks Q3 net profit could be in the range of Rs 15,873 crore to Rs 17,232 crore, the estimates said. While Nomura, Emkay Research and Yes Securities see a topline growth between 2% and 5.5% on a YoY basis, Citi and Mirae Asset Sharekhan see a 0.7-3% decline over the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. Citi is the most conservative on NII numbers while Yes remains the most bullish among its peers. Gross slippages could rise due to the seasonal stress in the agri book. The Street will watch out for growth in the banks deposits and outlook on margins. HDFC Bank will announce its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, January 22, 2025. Nomura expects net interest income to go up by 7% YoY and 1% QoQ at Rs 30,540 crore while banks Q3FY25 net profit to rise by 2% on a YoY to Rs 16,620 crore and decline by 1% on a QoQ basis. PAT growth in the reporting quarter to be lower on account of higher taxes in the base quarter. HDFC Banks net interest margins (NIMs) is seen at 3.4%, which is likely a 2 bps uptick over Q3FY24 while going down by 4 bps versus Q2FY25. The Pre Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) could rise by 6% and 2% on a YoY and QoQ basis, respectively at Rs 25,120 crore. The loans are seen to go up by 3% YoY to Rs 25,20,100 crore as on December 31, 2024. On a sequential basis, it may be a 1% gain. As for the deposits, a double-digit YoY jump is expected at Rs 25,63,100 crore while a 3% sequential growth could be reported. NIM moderation due to decline in CD ratio, weak CASA and higher growth in corporate loans, Nomura said. Banks credit cost is likely to remain contained at 0.5%. NII could go up by 7% YoY and 1% QoQ at Rs 30,497 crore while PAT is seen to decline 3% YoY and 6% QoQ to Rs 15,873 crore. NIMs are likely to rise by 3 bps YoY and fall by 2 bps QoQ to Rs 3.63%, this brokerage said. Loans could go up by 4% YoY and 2% QoQ to Rs 25,47,726 crore while deposits witnessing a 15% YoY growth at 25,55,432 crore. Post garnering > Rs 1 trillion of deposits in 2Q, we expect the momentum to slow down in seasonally weaker 3Q and build in Rs 55,000 of deposits accretion. Endeavor to reduce the LDR, sell-down assets and repay HDFCs borrowings will keep sequential loan growth in-line with deposits growth and could slow down to below 5% on YoY basis, Citi said in a note. Focus is on incremental spreads, change in portfolio mix (towards retail) and borrowings refinancing acts as gradual NIM improvement levers. We expect broadly stable NIMs QoQ with some downward bias, Citi said. Gross slippages in 3Q could inch-up given the seasonal stress in the agri book. Citi sees credit cost to normalise gradually with 50 bps in 3Q. Citi has pegged provisions at Rs 3,278 crore as on December 31, 2024, which is a 22% YoY decline while a 21% QoQ uptick. NII is seen to grow by 7.1% over Q3FY24 at Rs 30,491 crore while it may go up by 1.3% over Q2FY25. The Q3 net profit is seen at Rs 17,103 crore which could go up by 4.5% YoY and 1.7% QoQ. PPoP is seen at Rs 24,957 crore, rising by 5.5%YoY and 1% QoQ. NIMs could remain flat on a YoY basis while rising by 5 bps on a QoQ basis at 3.6%. The PPoP is seen around Rs 24,957 crore, gaining 5.5% and 1% on a YoY and QoQ basis. Slower credit growth and elevated opex, as the bank continues to build franchisees, could keep earnings in check. Deposit growth QoQ and margin sustenance shall remain the key monitorables. Elara has a buy recommendation on HDFC Bank shares. Sharekhan expects NII to go up by 8% YoY and 2% on a QoQ basis at Rs 30,727 crore in Q3FY25 while the PAT is expected to decline on a YoY and QoQ basis to Rs 16,264 crore. It could go down 0.7% over Q3FY24 and 3.3% over Q2FY25. The PPoP is seen at Rs 24,135 crore, up by 2.1% YoY and down 2.3% QoQ. Asset quality is expected to remain broadly stable while NIMs could be flat QoQ. Key monitorable would-be progress of NIMs, loan/deposit growth outlook. HDFC Bank is among Sharekhans preferred picks and it has suggested a buy for a target of Rs 2,100. NII could be reported at Rs 30,867 crore in the October-December quarter, which may go up by 8.4% YoY and 2.5% QoQ. PAT is expected at Rs 17,232 crore, up by 5.3% YoY and 2.4 QoQ. PPoP is expected to rise 7.3% YoY and 2.7% QoQ at Rs 25,374 crore. Sequential loan growth will be in the 2.5% ballpark due to the idiosyncratic growth trajectory. NII growth will be in-line with average loan growth as the rise in yield on advances to be in tandem with a rise in the cost of deposits. Consequently, NIM will be stable sequentially. Sequential fee income growth will broadly match loan growth, Yes said in its preview note. Opex growth would slightly lag business growth. Slippages would be broadly stable on a sequential basis. Provisions will be stable on a sequential basis, it said further. Yes has an Add view on the stock for a price target of Rs 2,025.21 Jan, 2025 12:03 PMView More